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Clarence Moye on Emmy Tracker: Emmy for Vera or Khaleesi?

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8.AMC’s ‘Preacher’ Debuts First Four Minutes

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Vera Farmiga and Emilia Clarke returned to the spotlight after two game-changing hours of TV. Will Emmy respond to these buzzy performances?

Two seismic events happened on TV this week. Will Emmy take a closer look at Vera Farmiga or Emilia Clarke?

Naturally, all spoiler warnings apply if you haven’t caught up with this week’s 

. If you haven’t, then bookmark this page, watch both right now, and come back for the update. We’ll be waiting… OK, welcome back (or thanks for being patient if you never left). Both hours of television saw some significant character progressions for actresses Vera Farmiga (Norma Bates on 

). No matter how deserving they are, both actresses have been somewhat on the periphery of the awards race this year. So, how will these significant developments play for Emmy voters.

hasn’t been this hot since it first premiered. A series that progressively increases in quality with each passing season, 

committed to the event that most fans have long anticipated / dreaded: Norman Bates finally killed his mother. Norma’s season four death capped a very, very strong season for Vera Farmiga. Personally, I’m not sure the character topped last season’s “Norma Louise,” but Farmiga’s Norma character arc was more consistently great and varied this season. Norma struggled with committing Norman to a mental hospital, fought with insurance, and made further sacrifices for Norman’s benefit. If there’s a mother in the Television Academy, then it would be impossible for them to ignore Norma’s plight.

Aside from Farmiga’s well-practiced brilliance where Norman is concerned, she was also given a huge gift by the writing team. She was allowed to fall in love and, shock, be happy. She was legitimately happy and hopeful for the first time in several seasons. These episodes, no matter how short lived they were, were not ironic distances for Farmiga. They were moments of genuine bliss. Moments that saw her share her darkest secrets with husband-of-convenience Romera (Nestor Carbonell). And he didn’t run away. He embraced her. And she melted. Farmiga radiated happiness in a way that 

has seldom allowed her. Vera Farmiga’s season four performance is a far different performance than she’s given in the series to date. Unfortunately, it’s probably her last lead performance for the series. She’ll undoubtedly be back as “Mother” in season five, but this is really Vera Farmiga’s big shot at Emmy glory.

‘s Viola Davis are the lockiest of locks if ever there has been a lock. There’s literally no way they’re not getting back into the nominees’ circle this year. Presuming six slots, that leaves us with four openings. Honestly, perennial nominee Claire Danes (

) is the most likely next nominee with Michelle Dockery, Taraji P. Henson, and Julianna Margulies nipping at their heels. Vera Farmiga has the opportunity to knock any one of those actresses out of contention, in my opinion, although buzz for 

‘s last season will probably carry Margulies forward. The same could be said for Michelle Dockery, although both were omitted from last year’s Drama Actress race in favor of Tatiana Maslany and Elizabeth Moss. Maslany *could* repeat, but I’m not getting a great deal of love for 

‘s latest season. Moss isn’t eligible this year.

So, Farmiga leaps ahead of Michelle Dockery for the moment on the Emmy Tracker. Recent buzz for the series and a widespread recognition by critics’ and fans for the impeccable quality of the fourth season should push her forward more than recent years. Earlier in the week, I’d have said it wasn’t possible, but with internet and print buzz at a fever pitch and with Farmiga’s starring turn in 

coming out just before Emmy voting… You never know. She just may pull off the nomination.

Emilia Clarke has a less complicated path forward. If anything, her recent recent to Daenerys badassery (re: nakedness) has solidified her place among the Drama Supporting Actress six. 

‘s Maggie Smith may be knocking at the door, but I suspect Clarke is going to shut the door, nail it, burn down the house, and walk out of the ashes clutching an Emmy in one hand and Smith’s bloodied head in the other. Okay, maybe not the bloodied head piece, but it is 

Kidding aside, the top six for Drama Supporting Actress feels nearly solidified at this point. 

‘ other big badass female Lena Headey has kept her season premiere heat going, and the rest of the  season feels promising. You can never bet against Uzo Aduba for 

as she tends to carry the acting love for the entire series. Plus, she’s just great on the show. Joanne Froggatt has been a perennial nominee for 

, recently taking Smith’s place in the category where Emmy has before made room for two. 

‘s final year should see Christine Baranski continue in the category, and it would be foolish to bet against her. She’s never missed out on a nomination for the show. 

‘s Rhea Seehorn would be the new nominee in the category, but it just feels so right this year given Kim Wexler’s increased importance in the show and her late season choice between Jimmy and Chuck.

Emilia Clarke is likely to benefit from overall love for the show. I’m convinced to this day that’s why she was nominated last year. There was no other justifiable reason. She simply wasn’t given enough to do other than fawn over Emmy-winner Peter Dinklage. Last season, she was the damsel to be dragon rescued. This season, she’s got the girl power vibe again, standing against the Dothraki herd that kidnapped her and, in the end of episode four, burning down the Dothraki temple of oppression, killing their patriarchal system with one fatal blow. Everyone loves it when Daenerys makes bold moves, particularly Emmy. The scene of her emerging (again) triumphantly from the fires is hard to get out of your head. Plus, she’s naked, so there’s something for the steak eaters in the Television Academy.

Emilia Clarke feels more likely to repeat last year’s nomination in the supporting category than does Vera Farmiga to re-enter an Emmy race she in which she last competed three years ago. Farmiga’s chances feel stronger today than they did earlier in the week, though, so we’re higher on her. She has a tremendous and tremendously loyal fan base that will likely feel energized to keep the drum banging long into the voting window.

It’s likely to change as we’re in a very fluid component of the Emmy nomination cycle without significant milestones / critics’ groups / award precursors to guild us.

But right now, we’re betting on both Vera Farmiga and Emilia Clarke.

2016 EmmysBates MotelEmilia ClarkeGame of ThronesVera Farmiga

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Vera deserves to win. But even if she doesn’t, nobody can take away the power, the vulnerability, the movements, the tones of her speak, etc., that she have done in Bates Motel.

Neither; Rachel Nichols of Continuum blows both of them out of the water.

I’m not even sure that show airs in the US.

I haven’t watched Bates Motel since the second season, but she probably deserves a nomination (although I don’t think she’ll get it).

And Lena Headey for supporting, with Seehorn, Baranski and Tierney right behind.

You should definitely catch up and see if you change your mind with season four. Robin Wright is great too, though. So much talent out there right now.

1) Viola Davis (Lock)- The winner always comes back.

2) Robin Wright (Lock)- Emmy voters are watching House of Cards and they clearly love it.

3) Claire Danes (Lock)- Same here, Emmy voters are watching Homeland. It is why they nominated it last year after its omission for the 3rd season.

4) Michelle Dockery- Her case is very similar to Elisabeth Moss. She’s in a series the Emmy voters love and they know is not coming back.

5) Julianna Margulies (Uncertain)- I think the Emmy voters are done with her, but she could get a goodbye nomination.

5) Tiraji p. Henson (Uncertain)- She’s lost momentum. Empire has been a mess this season and Emmy voters clearly do not like it. They only gave it 2 nominations for season 1.

6) Tatiana Maslany(Uncertain)- She’s lost a lot of momentum. No one is talking about Orphan Black season 4.

7) Vera Farmiga(Uncertain)- Vera Farmiga has been the most talked about performance the last couples of weeks, this could be a positive thing in a year where the Lead Actress category is extremely weak.

5) Julianna Margulies- The Good Wife or Tiraji P. Henson- Empire

I like the way you’re thinking. Although, I’m not sure you can fully count out Tatiana M. There wasn’t much buzz around season three either but she did get in last year.

After the latest episode of Tatiana Maslany, I just cannot imagine anyone else winning it. Sorry ladies (even though Claire, Taraji, Viola and Uzo are my absolute favorites)

Maybe she’ll be nominated, but I cannot see her ever winning. She’s great on the show though. No arguments there.

That sucks so much doesn’t it? Would you give her the award over all the others?

Hmm… Tough question for me. She’s most assuredly in my top three, but personally, I don’t know that I would give it to her over Vera Farmiga or Eva Green (“Penny Dreadful”). She’s great in the role though. I wish they’d recognized her years ago.

Hmm. That’s a tough one. She’s definitely in my top three with Farmiga and Eva Green from Penny Dreadful. I don’t know that I would necessarily give her the award outright though. Maybe a three-way tie?

Eva Green is also a possibility, Showtime is really good at getting nominations. Is there anyone else in contention for Drama Actress? Catriona Balfe? Lizzy Caplan? Ruth Wilson?

No one else serious IMO. If Ruth Wilson didn’t make it in last year then there’s no way she will this year with a more diversified storyline. Maura Tierney stands a better shot in supporting IMO.

This is why I think Vera Farmiga has a great chance of getting nominated this year. There are only three strong contenders possibly four and then there’s three open slots.

Vera Farmiga should get nominated. She gives the best female performance on television right now.